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But that isn’t what’s occurring. People at the Fed and elsewhere are using New Keynesian models as forecasting tools – that’s partly why they are over-optimistic. In a New Keynesian model, a shock hits, and there is certainly some direct impact from the surprise (the actual frictionless model delivers) and the indirect impact from the sticky price friction.

Ultimately the indirect impact dies out, and the economy results to it’s TFP-growth-driven craze. If the nominal interest rate is at the zero lower bound will make a difference, as away from the zero lower bound monetary policy can give quicker modification of relative prices. But retailers are not going to change their prices any more or less quickly because the nominal interest is zero than otherwise, everything else held constant.

There’s yet another puzzle associated with that idea. The next graph shows my crudely constructed way of measuring TFP (total factor productivity), using annual capital stock data (available only up to 2011), and household-survey employment. There’s no particular problem with TFP development. Speaking of work, it’s beneficial to look at what’s happening across areas of the U.S. I’ve normalized every time series to 100 at the first observation.